https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2021-november-2/
Interesting development following on from the previous SSM strike in Iraq.
In late October, according to the United States Defense Department, a “complex, coordinated, and deliberate attack” was conducted against a U.S. base at
Al Tanf in eastern Syria. U.S. officials did not directly blame Iran for the attack, carried out by several armed drones, but Iranian and pro-Iranian media in the region reported that the strike was conducted by Iran. There were no U.S. casualties among the small U.S. contingent at the base, but several of the structures on the base were destroyed. American troops are deployed in Syria under the mission to combat Islamic State, and neither their rules of engagement nor any authorization from Congress calls on them to combat Iran, except in self-defense.
The strike appears to represent the most direct and aggressive action to date undertaken by Iran or its proxies against the roughly 900 U.S. forces still in Syria and raises questions about the timing of such a bold and seemingly risky strike. It can be argued that the
U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August has led Iranian leaders to assess that direct U.S. military pressure can compel the United States to withdraw from the region completely.
Iranian strategists appeared to draw conclusions from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August. The United States justified the withdrawal, in the absence of a political settlement, by citing Taliban threats to resume attacks on U.S. forces if they remained beyond the agreed deadline of May 1. Iran’s allies in Iraq have already engineered the passage of non-binding legislation in Iraq’s parliament calling for a U.S. withdrawal of its 2,500 troops from Iraq, and the United States and Iraq have agreed that U.S. combat forces will depart by the end of 2021. Iran’s leaders apparently see military pressure on U.S. forces as a means to ensure that the deadline is met in Iraq, as well.