Just getting up to speed on this thread and developments on same. Couple of things stand out. Firstly, kudos to SOU for huge business development to try to fill the gaps left by Flybe's collapse.
Seems logical that BOH would try to draw all levers in any developments by SOU. They certainly have some good reason to be concerned. Any improvement in the runway infrastructure at SOU has the potential to reduce the price of poker. Giving Ryanair a bargaining chip opposite BOH can only drive fees and charges downwards. Moreover, while it is excellent to attract BACF, this is a mode of convenience for BACF until their corporate activity improves at LCY. While that segment is way behind and may never be as great as it is was, some competitors have to exited. They'll also find new business orientated routes as they broadly enjoy the lion's share of ops at LCY. No reason why SOU can't gain weekend ops to compliment BACFs LCY ops. BA will be keeping a watchful eye on corporate activity and nobody really knows what that will look like in the Spring.
When SOU extend the runway a low cost operator is the obvious addition at volume. If it's not easyJet, it'll likely be Wizz. Given easyJet scale at LGW, they may like to have the SOU business and deter others. Once competition kicks off it will be make or break for BOH. In my estimation, both SOU and BOH are primarily supported by the local market for their business and less inbound traffic. SOU has the big ticket items of cruise, a significant freight port and the city has a larger population than BOH. So for all these reasons, if SOU can accept the aircraft it would be the preferred local airport.
Last edited by EI-BUD; 31st Oct 2021 at 22:49.