I am in no way party to the P+L accounts of EMA as part of MAG, but I reckon your analysis is spot on. It's not to say EMA doesn't want to keep Ryanair, but given the diverse nature of the airport's business model, which is almost unique in UK, they probably fell they are in a much stronger position than almost all other regional airports as the UK exists the Covid driven retrenchment of the last 18 months / 2 years. Ryanair probably aren't familiar with a situation where they are negotiating with equals, and probably don't like it.