Sam, “… likelihood does not or should not take recent known events into consideration”
My limited understanding of probability theory requires care in differentiating events involving knowledge of cause (first event), which might then be related to subsequent events; from those without evidence of cause - correlation is not a cause - dependant or independent events.
#1 suggest that there have been three separate technical events (not identical), but erroneously concludes that the ‘cause’, is the operator; … we don't know.