safetypee
safetypee -- with respect... I may be misunderstanding your point, but if you are suggesting that likelihood does not or should not take recent known events into consideration you are either misunderstanding or mis-applying the concept. If you were conducting a risk assessment of the likelihood of Boeing 737 landing gear incidents globally (all carriers, all destinations) your position can be defended. If, on the other hand, you were conducting a risk assessment today of the specific likelihood of a FlyEgypt incident related to the landing gear or wheels, and you did not apply a higher likelihood than you would have three weeks ago, you need to read up on factors affecting likelihood.