Well we can only make basic assumptions based on what navy reported.
-Seawolf class are still top notch despite their age and way more advanced in electronics passive detection compared to 668(i). On certain technologies they are still more advanced than the succeeding Virginia class (at least the 1st batch).
- It seems very unlikely for this part of the world not to be very well charted.
- the reported casualties is low compared to the S.F incident, the sub went back on own power.
- Seawolf class have an publicly reported “silent speed” of 20kts and a top speed in the 35-40kts range. If operating close to the bottom (for thermocline stealth or spec ops ) it’s very unlikely it would be operating at more than a few kts, and would have a very precise keel-floor mesure. Running at PD the damage would be mostly on the sail, and striking a civilian traffic would have probably be reported as such.
To clarify on some other comments:
Chinese DO know that U.S subs operate in these waters, since they are still free of navigation based on international laws (even if claimed).
Submarines DO NOT operate in peace time in territorial waters submerged, this is considered an act of war, rightfully so. In these instances, they sail on surface displaying regular navigation light and identification. There are some few exceptions and mutual agreement in place (for some straights and closed water access, and joint exercises).
Chinese are well known to be implementing their own SOSUS system, it is unclear as to how efficient this system is.
I’d bet on either uncharted obstacle, Chinese anti-sub obstacles they would have laid down, or sub-sub collision, even if they claim it’s not the case. If it’s nothing serious, some data will probably be declassified once the navy investigation and report is complete.
anyway, CO,XO and OOD are probably heading to Hawaii for a non-biscuit coffee meeting, and their next command is probably a lighthouse…