Below is an excerpt from an article from SupChina as to why the surge of planes now. Or it could be what you say, a show to divert attention. Who knows. I myself believe China has pure military motivations for the excursions. Why the surge now?
Many news articles point out that October 1 is China’s National Day, and October 10 is Taiwan’s, so the period in-between is especially politically charged. But the Financial Times points out, “Last year, however, there was no marked increase in air incursions by China’s People’s Liberation Army.”
One possibility is that China is reacting to “the arrival of an armada east of the island comprising ships from the U.S., U.K., and four other countries” — France, the Netherlands, Canada, and New Zealand — for military exercises, per the Wall Street Journal.
Another possibility is that the surge is a reaction to Taiwanese efforts to gain more international recognition:
- Diplomatic mission naming: Last month, the Financial Times reported that the U.S. was “seriously considering” a Taiwanese proposal to change the name of Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington, D.C., from “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office” to “Taiwan Representative Office.”
- Former Australian PM visiting: “Tony Abbott has arrived in Taiwan to speak at a regional forum…He will be received by Taiwan’s most senior figures including the president, Tsai Ing-wen, the foreign minister, Joseph Wu, and the secretary general of the national security council,” per the Guardian.
- French politicians to visit: “A group of French senators including a former defence minister will visit Taiwan this week, the island’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday,” Reuters reports.
- European meetings upcoming: “Later this month, Taiwan’s chief economic planner is scheduled to lead a 65-strong delegation to several central and eastern European countries,” per the Financial Times.
More motivations for ADIZ incursions
According to a thorough report on ADIZs in East Asia by Mercedes Trent for the Federation of American Scientists, China has at least four motivations for flying military aircraft into other ADIZs:
- Training pilots for long-range flights that include interaction with foreign air forces.
- Gathering information on other militaries, since crossing into an ADIZ triggers predictable responses.
- Demonstrating air power — “sabre rattling” to signal to foreigners and domestic citizens the military’s resolve to protect security and sovereignty.
- To “decouple coalitions resistant to Chinese influence in the region.” On this last point, Trent explains:
China not only seeks to decouple security partners like Japan, South Korea, and the United States from one another, but to also manipulate possible domestic political cleavages to its advantage, such as those potentially between Taiwanese citizens and the Tsai government and between Japan’s hardline security establishment and more cautious partners like the Komeito [conservative political party].
Another possible motivation that is perhaps more specific to Taiwan ADIZ incursions, and mentioned by the New York Times, is simply wearing down the Taiwanese air force. “The strain of responding to China’s regular intrusions is wearing on Taiwanese pilots and aircraft, and it could be affecting the island’s overall vigilance, experts said.”