Originally Posted by
WE Branch Fanatic
I am not sure who will provide that when 736NAS goes - presumably HHA Hunters? I am sure that the Hawk also has a dissimilar air combat training role?
As that miracle worker Mr Scott so deftly put it, "And if my Grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon!" It is highly unlikely that HHA will replace 736 NAS unless the Navy TLB funds it, which they won't as there is NO MONEY for it unless 1SL has a magic pot nobody knows about.
What you have to understand is that funding for Hawk T1 and Draken Europe's MSASS contract comes from within the Air TLB. If Hawk T1 is to be replaced in part, assuming Air has any money, then I would expect three possible options depending on the fiscal position of the Air (and Navy) TLBs and how competent their capability areas are:
- Do nothing and accept a capability gap until 1 January 2025 when, assuming Air Capability has sorted its proverbial out, the live element of NGOT service delivery commences. ZERO chance NGOT will occur given the schedule even if most deterministic! They've not even held a formal industry engagement day.
- A bridging contract to cover an element of Hawk T1 until Air Capability sorts its proverbial out, aligns its live and synthetic programmes based on technology maturity levels in a road map (in consultation with industry), and actually has a coherent and funded plan. Again, I won't hold my breath here.
- Adjust an extant contract in some way via a contract change vehicle. Again, hugely difficult for many reasons, expect a legal challenge.
After the ASDOT farce, industry probably feels hesitant to engage due to the complete lack of transparency and open engagement regards realistic expectations for what the Air TLB would be willing to pay. Why should industry waste another £5MM+ on a bid? Competition is rapidly becoming fierce in this space, there's at least a half dozen companies who could deliver a bridging contract in 2022 with a Hawk T1 type capability (or better) until NGOT ever arrives. Off the top of my head, without any thought, and discounting turbo props for JTAC training:
Subsonic
Apache - L-39.
ARES - MB339CE.
Air USA - Hawk mk67.
Draken - L-159E.
HHA - Hunter mk58.
Top Aces - Alpha Jet 1B+ (the first two, if not more, are completing overhaul in Charleroi).
Supersonic
ARES - Mirage 2000.
ATAC - Mirage F1CR/CT.
Draken - Mirage F1, Cheetah C/D, F-16A/B Block 20 MLU.
Procor - Mirage 2000.
Tactical Air Support - F-5E/F, CF-5D (has acquired a further 55).
Top Aces - F-16A/B Block 10.