Having travelled around Afghanistan (and other countries in the region) in the 70s and subsequently paid pretty close attention to it - I've got a small library on the subject - I'd like to think that not having been "shot at" isn't a bar to having an opinion here. I've seen my own judgements about likely outcomes confirmed often enough, starting with the appalling mis-judgements which led to support for the likes of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and the "foreign fighters" (aka Bin Laden's Saudi crew) at the inception of the insurgency against the Soviet occupation. I've heard and read enough appalling judgements uttered by those in command who have been shot at to not automatically endorse their opinions even though, in principle, I value their service. Ultimately the egregious faults of western engagement in the region originate with the political and administrative classes.
Long-term the only likely "solutions" to the problem of Afghanistan lie far in the future and require the decay of a primitive religion and, probably, the division of the country into some sort of regional federation of the various tribes. I'm not holding my breath on either count. Then there's Pakistan...