If rumours that the 777 fleet is to be shrunk to less than a quarter of what it used to be is true (around 10 planes), a number of around 100 CNs and 150 FOs would make sense. This would require 80 more CNs and 250 FOs to leave the 777 fleet. Coincidentially enough, 250 CNs and 250 FOs was the ballpark figure of Dragonair pilots. Considering their fleet of half A320 and half A330, it would be a good ballpark figure to assume that half of the crew were tasked to fly the A320. The 330 extra 777 crew would perfectly fill that void. (minus a few from resignations/ retiring)
I think we would all agree that though this shrinking of the 777 fleet is a short term measure (5 year period would be a good ballpark figure), the company is most likely not concerned about maintaining the 777 fleet crew compliment, and is focusing on building the 320 fleet as that is expected to be the fleet that would return to full capacity the earliest. Only when capacity really returns to a point where the 777 makes financial sense will they then either transfer crew back to the 777 from the 330/747, or do further hiring. Therefore, from a cost point of view, and from what the company have done in the past, it would not make sense for FOs to be upgraded to the 777 in the near future, as it would be money spent now, when it could be spent later (thus making it someone else's problem). A safe bet therefore is to expect more hiring from the Dragonair pool, and more drafts from the 777 in the future to fill the 320 spots .
Sidenote: I dont think id be interested in the bean counting, I only do these analysis to try and make better career decisions, glad that you are finding it interesting though.
Last edited by Posterizing; 9th Sep 2021 at 06:28.