Originally Posted by
dr dre
More technically it was 80%-90% and a grace period for any stragglers to get a shot.
The rate of vaccine uptake per day is about 0.7%, so it’s quite possible once hitting 80% the time to high 80’s could only be about two weeks, basically I think they’re going until the rate of increase begins to level off (ie you start running into the anti-vaxxers). This is probably what all states with low Covid at the moment will aim for, Tasmania, ACT and NT have pretty much said so too. Once all’s said and done it’ll probably only be an extra a month or so.
But the supply of vaccines is increasing too, Moderna coming online soon so the supply is going to increase to two million per week (from about 1.3 million per week start of August) which should bring the dates to hit targets forward considerably.
Even with a grace period I think a nationwide Christmas reopening is possible.
Demand for vaccines currently outstrips supply. This is going to be reversed soon and it will present a more clear picture of the proportion of the population who are unwilling to get vaccinated. I think that number may well be in excess of 20% of the adult population. I think the government knows this too, that’s why there is a massive push to influence those around you and for employers to pressure their workers to do it, you need to agree to do the latter if you want to get a Covid safe plan for your business in NSW.
The number of people resistant to vaccination will increase as the lower age limit is reduced. People can be pressured into getting a jab they’re skeptical about, it’s harder to pressure someone into getting their kid vaccinated with a vaccine they don’t trust.
So far the only country in the world to achieve 80% of their population vaccinated is Malta.