Originally Posted by
ORAC
One of the forecasts being made is that the Taliban will, as they are rumoured t9 have already done, proclaim the production of opium as sinful and illegal - and will then negotiate with western nations for large amounts of aid to “pay” for their efforts at suppression.
At this point I will suggest this is an offer which, if made, should be be rejected. This is for three reasons.
Not so sure, ORAC.
Taliban dependence on drug money is contested by some experts, and even if it does reach the $400M annual 'worst' case, that's an amount the West can easily outmatch with suitable incentives.
In addition to the major sources listed at the link, the Taliban has indirectly been doing very well from Western aid, by extracting bribes from security forces and contractors in return for not attacking them. That will now have dried up, so they desperately need those aid flows to resume directly into their coffers.
Satellite crop monitoring is already used to track opium production, and
application of AI promises to reduce the analytical burden. This makes it easy for outside powers to assess compliance from afar and make conditional payments.
China is already doing precisely that elsewhere and will presumably share the Western interest in suppressing the Afghan opium trade. And it means the Taliban wouldn't need to patrol the entire countryside: we could tell them where to look. I daresay a few punishments for 'sinful' behaviour would have a greater deterrent effect than the former Western practice of simply destroying the crop.