Hmmm - I am either not writing clearly enough or people are speed reading past the important bits.
Pick a date when we get back to normal flying - say 20August 2024
Pick a year? 2024? 2028?
So that is 3244 pilots - we have 2900 with another 100+ to leave as the list still includes based pilots in Europe and NA.
So if we expand to 3244 pilots then we will have enough to man 111 of our aircraft - the other 88 will need to sit in AS for a few more years.
At some point - next year - the year after - the year after that - 2028 - at some point we need a shed load more pilots. We do NOT have enough pilots to man our aircraft to the levels they were being flown in 2018 (pre protests/covid). There will be many "Missed Opportunities" (as a former manager called it) for the next few years.
Or you can believe that China will never open up again - and will never use HK as a gateway trading/commercial port again. That assumption only time will prove correct/incorrect. I choose to believe that the world will return to a new normal - just like it did after the GFC - just like it did after 9-11 when people said people will never trust flying again etc etc