Numero you base your projections on zero growth and a world recovery as has always been the case in the past.
However HKG and China looks set to severally stunt travelling freedoms for a significant amount of time still.
Even when we reach the mythical 70% vaccinated percentage there is no way they will allow free unrestricted travel in and out of hkg any time soon. It will be travellers from "low risk" countries only that will be allowed into hkg without quarantine. And that changes weekly.
Most of Asia won't be low risk any time soon.
So our local business is dead because the hundreds of thousands of holiday trips hong kong people made around asia and Asians to hkg won't be happening again soon. HKG EXPRESS is thus dead for another 12 to 24 months.
That leaves our transit business. Realistically within the next 12 months we should be able to go back to India/ Indonesia / Phillipines etc and go pick up thousands of travellers there to transit them via hkg onto USA /Canada / EU ( not Aus or NZ as they will also restrict travellers from high risk places for a long time still)
BUT the crew on these flights will all have to be closed loop....for possibly another two years or so. Good luck with that.
Then there's the fact that tourism from the west to China is a thing of the past due politics.
If the above scenario plays out the majority of the 777 fleet will remain parked for another year at least and more likely two years as our pax business will be half or less of what it was before covid....thus no pilot shortage in hkg for a while stil?
PS.
Question to management - what do you do with a 777 fleet when you realise it's been parked for two years almost already and it will possibly be parked for two more...?
Last edited by missingblade; 23rd Aug 2021 at 03:46.