Hi Curry Lamb
actually i have based the above on zero expansion - zero.
As of 31/12/2020 we had 91 long haul a/c. Average annual hours for airbus/777 pre protests/covid was just a little under 700.
Big assumption: This time ISN'T different. That is - like the world has recovered(eventually) from every crisis in history, I will assume that one day, the skies will be as full as they were in 2018 say. Pick a year? 2024? 2028?
Anyway - looking at those 91 a/c (yes we are losing a few 777s - gaining a bunch more of them in a few years - but for the sake of simplifying the maths - let's use 91 a/c) - we need 711 crews - assuming all that flying is long haul that is 4 per crew so 2844 - this ignores management and check and training additions.
We need about 400 pilots or so to man the freighters.
So that is 3244 pilots - we have 2900 with another 100+ to leave as the list still includes based pilots in Europe and NA.
So if we expand to 3244 pilots then we will have enough to man 111 of our aircraft - the other 88 will need to sit in AS for a few more years.
As far as going broke - we were cash flow neutral in first half(still loss making as a business) and expect to be doing a lot better in the 2nd half. What the bottom line figure will be I dont know - but I suspect for the year the total loss will be around the 10B mark. And as far as I know they haven't used any of the Govt loan money as yet - I think they said there was circa 30B in cash+govt loan. So at the cash burn rate of the first half we would run out of money around December 2023 - assuming they can't tap Swire/CCP + Hk Govt for more money.
So do I think we will survive? Yes! (barring a comet/covid22/GFC mk 2)
Or you are right- and the sky is falling
Last edited by Numero Crunchero; 20th Aug 2021 at 14:49.