The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Let me make you aware….

https://amti.csis.org/taiwan-scs-policy-evolution/

https://www.e-ir.info/2021/01/16/the...u-shaped-line/

Thank you so much, ORAC, for these links.
They both backstop the Chinese narrative as well as the Taiwanese course corrections.
Frankly, imho it leaves the law pretty murky.
The most plausible forecast is that China will deploy overwhelming military force over the coming years to cement its claims.
That is what is clearly happening already, but China won't have the assets in place to really make it stick for a few years yet.