The very fact that there are rumours that FR may substantially reduce or even stop operating from EMA after so many years should be ringing alarm bells at BHX. We all know that FR dump planes and capacity into airports they can get the best deal with and will up sticks as quickly if the terms of those deals change.
My personal opinion is that negotiations with MAG over the future of FR at EMA are still very much ongoing and the new routes announced at BHX are just a warning shot to help the EMA negotiations go in FR's favour i.e we're happy to go for growth at BHX if you don't give us what we want. I think they want to expand at EMA but they haven't yet got the deal they want.
The FR-BHX relationship has been testy at best and after much fanfare when the BHX base opened, it quickly stagnated and I've lost count of the number of routes they've dropped over the years.
Having said all this, BHX are gaining from whatever the issues are at EMA and I for one would be more than happy to see a lot more FR destinations and bases units at BHX (Berlin, please,please!!) but we have to have eyes very much open to the fact that FR could scoot growth back up the M42 in no time.