Originally Posted by
Cirressna
Hang up the wings, zero is here to stay.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-...14-p58iqs.html
If Australia did open up at 70 per cent adult vaccination with daily cases in the hundreds, as they were in NSW on Saturday, modelling from the Doherty Institute suggests 385,000 coronavirus cases and almost 1500 deaths could occur in six months.
They had us for a moment there.
Holy snappin' duckshyte! 1,500 deaths in 6 months? That's like, what? 3,000 deaths a year?
That's less than half of that caused by voluntary tobacco smoking, according to the ABS and Cancer Council. Guess they'd better ban the durries, now, too!
Ciressna is right though. No Premier, except Gladys most likely, is going to accept a thousand cases a day in a 70-80% vaccinated population. The Democratic Peoples Republic of Westralia, Af-Danistan and Queen-P's-Land have all pinned their re-election campaigns on the
"But only I can keep (kept) you safe!" mantra. They -
particularly McGoose - will never tolerate such case numbers, even if every man, woman and child in the
Country is double-vaccinated against Covid.
As I referred to previously, look at a country like Iceland, that
is significantly vaccinated and extrapolate
their case percentages to our population, and see what you get. Do the same for the UK and the numbers aren't that different. Around 7000 (Iceland) - 10,000 (UK) cases
per day in a vaccinated population.
As of today, the UK has 89.4% of their adult population with one jab, 76.7% have had two, and they're racked up
26,750 cases, and (only) 61 deaths (
Source). Our population is ~38% of the UK's so, there's 10,000 cases right there. And 25 deaths.
Iceland - a global leader in vaccination has 64 new cases (
Source), with our population being 7422% of theirs, so 4,700 new cases with their 14 day average being 396.2, or for our population,
7,500 a day...
Israel, by all reports one of the first countries to introduce the nationwide vaccine is around 78% of eligible people double-vaccinated (
Source), yet even
they racked up 4,100 new cases on Saturday (
Source) against a population of 9.0M (34% of ours), so an Australian-equivalent
12,000 cases / day!
Covid-Zero? We've got no hope, nor does any other country, but so long as we have state leaders - and their lapdog CHO's pushing a Covid-Zero agenda - Australia as a
nation has got stuff-all chance of an internal reopening, no matter
what our vaccination numbers are.
And then, what's the outcome of that? Indefinite lockout of NSW? Temporary lockout of Victoria? Permanent G2G passes so the DPRW knows who's coming and going, and where you will stay while in the DPRW and (of course) being able to track you via their G2GNow app, that they now mandate you must use?
Which section of the Australian Constitution do you think would be contravened?
I'm not sure it'll be introduced nationwide, but in the event some states require you to have it, but your home state does not, then s.117 would apply, as was found by Stephen.J in
Henry v Boehm and covered in the
Street judgement, which is currently the litmus test for s.117 cases. The reason s.117 would apply is simple, because (for example) if WA required all incoming travelers (but not citizens travelling
within WA) to have a Vaccine Passport, the "disability or discrimination" would not be
equally applicable as the WA resident
was already in that other state. Being WA.