Originally Posted by
skridlov
"The jihad will not be over until Islam conquers the whole world". This is a political movement based on Pashtun village religious culture with grandiose ambitions. It will once again attract maniacs from all over the planet. We are not done with Afghanistan.
We are done with propping up a puppet regime while trying to democratise the political culture (spot the contradiction in terms?). Islamist cranks can base themselves in Yemen, Libya, Lebanon, etc etc: there's nothing special about Afghanistan that means the West must occupy it forever. Yes OBL took sanctuary there in the 1990s, but it is no longer the 1990s. Surveillance and counter-terrorism capabilities have moved on. The global strategic situation has changed beyond recognition and the West's priorities have rightly changed. Pakistan and China are probably wondering why it took us so long to bail. They are not so dumb that they will now sit by and allow Afghanistan-based groups to wreak havoc. Pakistan is about to lose the leverage it held over the West for access to Afghanistan and will not want to risk economic sanctions by tacitly supporting terror. Its interest in Afghanistan is limited to denial of Indian influence, which it has achieved. And while China has reportedly cut a deal with the Taliban to prevent interference with the suppression of Uighur Muslims, Beijing will undoubtedly be wary of the potential for "rogue" universalist Islamist groups to gain a foothold, and labours under few of the constraints which have hampered the Western intervention. The vital interests of the neighbouring powers align closely enough to the West's that we should leave it to them to sort out.