Originally Posted by
common cents
No argument from me. I acknowledge that the vaccines have an effect. I am vaccinated. The percentages are Relative Risk Reductions. All I attempted to demonstrate was firstly the real world nature of the problem ie: IFR and secondly the absolute benefit of vaccination.
The data is perfect for an extrapolation of the true nature of the problem as it yields an IFR figure of 0.38%. The effect of vaccine is to reduce the IFR down to 0.14%.
Yes vaccines work.
But in my view we need to stop this infatuation with case numbers as all we are seeing there is the top of the pyramid. The extrapolations I’ve made from real data potentially show the whole pyramid. Respectfully, the damage we are causing with lockdowns is not commensurate with the real problem.
By my geometry, cases would be the bottom of the pyramid but yes, I don't disagree with the premise. The focus should be on hospitalisations and ICU admissions.
Of course that gross fatality rate is for a sample aged 16 - over 80, what the study doesn't show is deaths broken out by age group. You would expect to see a markedly different set of numbers for the 70+ cohort.
If you want to get a real world understanding of the impact of the vaccines, look at the ICU admissions (severe illness). Based on that study the difference between a vaccinated population and an unvaccinated one in Israel (population ~ 9 million) is about 1,800 ICU admissions (you'd need about 4,000 ICU nurses to service that).