Originally Posted by
43Inches
One thing that's obvious from this sad period of human history is that most can not understand how to interpret statistics.
When you have people that think 1 in 100 is an acceptable rate of disease and that 1 in 100,000 is to worry about I fear that basic math is lacking.
If you want a simpleton example, you fill the MCG to capacity (100,000), give them all Covid. If they are unvaccinated worst case scenario is around 5000 people die, that reduces to 2000 die if medical care is 1st world standard.
For a morbid example of what 2000 dead looks like, a Metro train has crush capacity for 1000, so 2000 dead is 2 full train-sets crammed with dead bodies so as it rolled passed you would just see dead bodies pressed against the doors and windows with no space.
If you were to fill the MCG with unvaccinated over 65s alone the death toll could be as much as 40,000 without care, Dropping to about 20,000 with 1st world standard care.
Empty and clean the MCG you then refill with Vaccinated people and spread the virus around, 1 person might die from the vaccine, at current rate of 97% reduction in deaths and serious side effects, 150 (based on the 5000 non care rate) would die from Covid. So a total Death toll of 151.
To use the train example, that would be 2 out of 12 cars (two sets) with seating for each dead rather than packed in.
Anything beyond 1 in 10,000 is so rare its barely worth thinking of, and anything under 1 in 1000 is considered commonplace. Hence why the medical occurrence ratings stop at 1:10,000 beyond that its statistically rare to null chance of occurring.
Im not sure who you are directing this at 43? I'm pretty strong on bio stats and epidemiology and can bore you to death at a Covid party on positive predictive values, risk ratio's and the differences between specificity and sensitivity. But you're right from the aspect that everything we do in life, including flying a plane involves an element of risk. Each of us just has varying degrees of acceptance of that risk. When it comes to vaccine's again there is a risk, but like you said, it's incredibly small. Is it not worth talking about? No, as everyone should be fully aware of what those risks are, but they're incredibly small too. In the words of Gladys, vaccines offer "Green Shoots!"