Whilst ORAC did start this thread to look at post 2021, it is worth looking back as well. The UK govt were never fully committed to this campaign and were unwilling to spend the money to make it a real success. Contrast this with the money wasted on track and trace, which would have gone a long way. This is not a critique of any colour of politician's cloth as they are all guilty and Tony Bliar's escapade in Iraq, hanging on the coat-tails of Dubya, took away much needed focus and resource from where it was needed more.
Already mentioned on here are the previous 'wars' the UK has been involved in and I also commend the book by William Dalrymple even if it is a hard read at times. That book also exposes that those early escapades could have been successful were it not for some big tactical errors by some of the commanders at the time, including camping outside Kabul in a very poor defensive situation. Even then, engagement with local rulers, or warlords was the game, one that largely worked in India but was poorly exercised in Afghanistan.
If we go back even earlier we can learn from the Romans as well. How did a small group of people manage to hold sway for a hundred years over such a large area. Again it was through not only military force and expertise but also engagement with local chiefs. When the Romans withdrew from places such as Britannia, the dark ages began and we can arguably see that happening again across parts of the world including Afghanistan. I am a fan of democracy but there is a lot to be said for some form of dictatorship, noting the harm that this exercises on those who disagree with the leadership.
There is clearly no appetite in the Western world to put more boots on the ground in this country and so, containment must be the aim. There is a clear argument that pressure need to be put on countries such as Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, who fund the Madrassas, which espouse an extreme view of what is a peaceful religion. I note that Pakistan has also lost huge numbers of troops in areas such as the Kashmir and border areas. It is the criminal element that needs to be contained, to cut off the heads of the snakes to prevent heroin being shipped to Europe. We need to support and nurture those more enlightened who have fled their country, so that in time, they may be in a position to exert pressure on group such as the Taliban and unite the tribes. Where will the next Lion of the Panshir come from? We need to take a leaf out of the Chinese book and look at the long game, although I despair that Western Politics, are too short term for any such philanthropic viewpoint.
We know this also. The values we believe in should shine through what we do in Afghanistan.
To the Afghan people we make this commitment. The conflict will not be the end. We will not walk away, as the outside world has done so many times before.
Tony Bliar Brighton, 2001