Originally Posted by
Ninthace
Good article ORAC. The telling point is right at the end. This risks being part of a cycle. Afghanistan is likely become a base for the export of terrorism. and militancy, either on its own volition or as a proxy. How long before the major powers find this intolerable and feel compelled to act again? Are there other states that have potential to become new Afghanistans?
Surely yes, any of the 'Stans' is a fine candidate.
If the Taliban were nationalists, they would focus on rebuilding and developing their country, something China would be eager to help them do, if only to help offset their worsening image in the Muslim world.
However, if the Taliban are Islamic first, they will focus on ridding the Islamic community of western colonial constructs such as these various states.
We should find out shortly.
I doubt however that any of the 'major powers' are likely to act even if the Taliban become externally involved. Russia and the US both have been there and done that, no desire to return.
That leaves only China, which has its own unhappy memories of western powers adjusting frontiers, There is no benefit to China to uphold these political structures.