From The Lancet April 2021
Vaccine efficacy is generally reported as a relative risk reduction (RRR). It uses the relative risk (RR)—ie, the ratio of attack rates with and without a vaccine—which is expressed as 1–RR. Ranking by reported efficacy gives relative risk reductions of 95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 94% for the Moderna–NIH, 91% for the Gamaleya, 67% for the J&J, and 67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines.
ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs: 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.
ARR is also used to derive an estimate of vaccine effectiveness, which is the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one more case of COVID-19 as 1/ARR. NNVs bring a different perspective: 81 for the Moderna–NIH, 78 for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 108 for the Gamaleya, 84 for the J&J, and 119 for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.
So you may assume worst case that all of Australia gets infected. Roughly 26 million cases. If we all in the words of minister Hazardous “go for gold and vaccinate baby” that means that only 25781512 of us will be infected. Based on NNV of 119 for Pfizer.
Awesome!
But it would end lockdowns.
IFR of Covid calculated at a mean of 0.23% across all ages and sex. Refer to below.
Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data
John P A Ioannidis
a Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, 1265 Welch Road, Stanford, California 94305, United States of America.
Correspondence to John P A Ioannidis (email: [email protected]).
(Submitted: 13 May 2020 – Revised version received: 13 September 2020 – Accepted: 15 September 2020 – Published online: 14 October 2020)
Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%)
Probably comparable to the flu in younger populations. Certainly south of 0.23%.
So ARR of severe cases and death was NOT an end point In Pfizer clinical trial data so it was not reported.
CDC recently reported on 9000 breakthrough cases with 835 hospitalisations and 130 deaths. Reported by CDC.
Israel recently reported on 1692 breakthrough cases with hospitalisation of 596 and 364 deaths. Reported by Israeli Health Ministry.
How effective are these vaccines at reducing severe cases and death? You do the numbers.
I refuse to draw any conclusions from media reports and YouTube doctors.
No concrete peer reviewed data yet but real world data not painting a good picture.
For what it’s worth I am waiting on my 2nd Pfizer jab so no attacks please.
Making statements like 43 inches “go get vaccinated and get on with it” are misguided.
The government wants a way out of lockdowns. So they are pushing experimental vaccines because that’s what everyone else is doing.
For those of you who do not want to participate in this global vaccine experiment I say you are entitled to your freedom to choose. I for one will not hold it against you.
No one has the right to push an idea or an ideology on anybody.
Especially when you consider that the benefits of vaccine whilst real are probably grossly over exaggerated.