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Old 6th Aug 2021, 21:18
  #1056 (permalink)  
Flugplatz
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: UK
Age: 57
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I don't think the Chinese strategy will allow for a singular focus on retaking Taiwan, typically with game-changing strategic moves like that, history has shown that successful campaigns feature some sort of 'second front' (ideally a real measure beyond a temporary diversion). You raise the stakes like that and put a major other factor in play, then your adversary has to weigh its response against that other major threat. I wouldn't put it past China to make a major move against either Japan or Australia, just to make the south China sea issue seem like a relative sideshow. They can back down on any significant move against Japan / Philippines / Australia a lot easier if they establish a new territorial understanding in the south China sea. Same sort of thing during the Cuba missile crisis, 'NATO' missiles were withdrawn from Turkey as part of the bargain to withdraw nukes from Cuba. In this case, bearing in mind the modern world and China's present means of undermining the western democracies, a cyber-attack on a scale not seen before is a major possibility
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