Originally Posted by
DuckDodgers
That's the real problem especially when you look as to how much Red Air that the RAF and RN consume right now which excluding minor contracts and in-house squadron generation is broadly: IX Sqn Typhoon 1,200hrs (never realised), 736 NAS and 100 Sqn 5,350hrs Hawk T1/1A (includes CT), MSASS 6,500hrs (Falcon 20 and DA42). Even under the defunct ASDOT programme the requirement was to the magnitude of 6,170hrs per year across all COCO capabilities with some 3,300hrs Hawk T1/1A out until 2027.
So the problem space between 1 April 2022 (much earlier than envisaged) and when the live programme within the NGOT portfolio is supposed to commence (good luck with the schedule on that) is obvious. How do you plug a 33 month gap assuming you have identified a funding line? Rapid competition that ditches any MAA requirements beyond an inspection and recommendations against current certification base (done recently in both Germany and France)? Add capability to an extant service provision (legal challenges)? Take a capability gap until synthetic maturity levels are viable and your'e able to fund its injection pan platform and domain (there goes your training AND operational assurance)? Leverage another national or multi-national programme (oh shucks, we're not in the EDA no more Toto)? The problem with all of this is that Air Cap still have not approached industry in a formal capacity either through a working group (rather like the way ACC and USAFE have done it) nor through an engagement day.
Bottom line is that it's a mess, was all totally avoidable assuming leaders actually owned their portfolios and made decisions rather than leaving it to the next man or woman to do.
It is indeed a mess. A mess which is only going to be solved through some fairly rapid decision making and COAs that produce a viable and credible aggressor capability. Interesting times, for sure and the outcome will be interesting in terms of what does happen and the timeline for it to happen.