Does anyone know what UK based airlines recruit low hour pilots and are likely to be recruiting in 2 years time?
Firstly, well done for asking the question, although the answers may depress you…
Considering the UK market specifically, there are two important points to make:
(1) The pilot job market is highly cyclical – massively so in fact.
(2) In the UK, the market is driven in large part by British Airways.
Taking the first point, roughly once every decade, there will be a seismic shock that triggers a big downturn in aviation. Specifically:
1990 (Gulf War 1),
2001 (9/11 terrorist attacks),
2008 (the global financial crash), and now COVID in
2020. Fewer people fly, airlines stop expansion and recruitment, struggling carriers go bust and dump hundreds of experienced pilots onto the job market. Prospects for newly qualified pilots are bleak.
Over a period of several years, the market gradually recovers. Slowly at first, with jobs few and far between, then more strongly, until eventually recruitment is so healthy that people are qualifying and going straight from school to airline, and pilots in their first jobs with just 500 hours are suddenly regarded as experienced and start moving up the ladder. Then there’s another ‘event’, and the cycle repeats.
The key point is, it took years to recover from each of the previous downturns – none of which were anything like as severe as COVID.
Regarding the second point, BA prior to COVID had around 4,500 pilots. When they recruit, they tend to recruit big, and will hoover up pilots from other airlines. In general broad-brush terms, if BA are recruiting, everyone else will be. If BA are not recruiting, the job market will be pretty slow.
Nobody knows how long it will take to recover from the current pandemic, but consider this: I was very fortunate to land my first airline job in 2008, just before the financial crash hit. I kept my job, but there was next to no movement in the UK job market for years afterwards. We had cadets in the training system at the time who ended up working as cabin crew for several years. Even 5 years later, the lack of UK jobs meant that many of us finished up out in hot and sandy places, as it was the only way to move on.
And when did BA – who power the UK job market – start to recruit in significant numbers? 2014/15. That’s at least 6 years on from the original downturn.
Bear in mind also that COVID is on a different scale to any previous contraction. Not since WW2 has there been such a severe and prolonged hiatus in civil aviation. BA, who had
never previously made a pilot redundant, subjected several hundred to compulsory redundancy last year. Flybe, Thomas Cook and Stobart have all ceased trading. And those hundreds of experienced pilots can’t just up sticks and go to the Middle East – even if they were prepared to – because the market out there is just as bad.
So if it took 6 years before we had significant recruitment last time round (let’s be generous and call it 5 years) how long do you think it will take this time?
I’m sorry if it’s not what you wanted to hear, but based on my experience I think the chances of any UK airlines recruiting low hours pilots in 2 years time -
in meaningful numbers – are close to zero. If I had a son or daughter with their heart set on being a commercial pilot, I would be strongly advising them to get a PPL and sit out the next few years in an industry – any industry – where there is a genuine demand for new recruits. There certainly isn’t in aviation – whatever fantasies the training schools peddle.