Originally Posted by
Ladloy
blood clot risk below 50 years increases considerably. My age group is 1 in 30000 and I'm sure CASA would have a field day. I don't live in Sydney so there's no rush for me. By all means those in Sydney should go out and get AZ, ...
The Winton Centre at the University of Cambridge produced a handy infographic for doing a comparative risk assessment for the AstraZeneca vaccine. It shows the comparative risk of contracting COVID-19 and developing a serious illness versus the risk of developing a serious thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) reaction from the AstraZeneca vaccine. As expected the risks correlate inversely by age group.
Source: Communicating the potential benefits and harms of the Astra-Zeneca COVID-19 vaccine, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge
The COVID-19 risk on this graphic is based on a case prevalence of 2 active cases per 10,000 population. Nationally, we are running at about 0.67 cases per 10,000 or one third that rate; NSW is running at about that rate of 2 active cases per 10,000 population; Greater Sydney is presently around one third higher than the base rate at 3 cases per 10,000. It is a relatively simple case of adjusting the potential benefit of getting the vaccine by multiplying the base benefit illustrated by one half of your local case rate.