I think many of us are too gullible when it comes to the popular media line that China is growing inexorably ever stronger and will surpass and defeat the US.
Cai Xia's paper is interesting:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/former-...ve-11624969800
As background, read this:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...t-party-failed
I have been on a reading tear for the last six months - immersing myself in Soviet history.
Have read this:
https://www.amazon.com.au/Stalin-Par.../dp/0143127861
then this:
https://www.booktopia.com.au/stalin-...IaAp8aEALw_wcB
Then this:
https://www.amazon.com.au/Lenin-New-.../dp/1476764840
and have just finished this:
https://www.booktopia.com.au/khrushc...MaAsvYEALw_wcB
This is next when published:
https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/brezhnev-9780755642113/
Xi's parallels with Stalin are intriguing.
Ms Cai's insights on the fragility of the CCP are insightful.
I recommend that the US be fully prepared for the possible sudden disintegration of the CCP. The CCP appears to be powerful on the outside, but this refined neo-totalitarian Stalinist dictatorship is actually quite fragile inside. The CCP has the ambition of a hungry dragon but inside it is a paper tiger. There are many factors that may lead to unexpected changes in the situation and even possibly the collapse of the regime. They include the unsustainable economic model and high levels of debt; the inherent and insurmountable contradiction between exaggerated ideological propaganda and social reality; the incompatible dual-track ownership system between the market and the state; the increasing social disparity between rich and poor; continuing corruption; and the fierce infighting for succession to supreme power. Xi Jinping’s overly suspicious and narrow-minded personality has led to continuous purges inside the party, which have brought extreme dissatisfaction among the middle- and high-level officials of the CCP. Everyone feels unsafe.
All of these factors make it possible that any unexpected event may cause a chain reaction leading to huge changes in the situation and even the collapse of the regime. Recall that no one predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union or other communist states in Eastern Europe—yet they occurred. A sudden and instant collapse triggered by random events will almost inevitably bring disorder and chaos within China, which will reverberate outside the country. Therefore, the US must have a clear-eyed understanding and prepare for unpredictable contingencies.