It’s not only whether Aviation will be ‘allowed’ to return to pre-Covid traffic volumes, customer demand may also be a factor.
I had lunch with an old friend who is a senior executive at a major management consultancy. They have decided to become ‘carbon neutral’ and business travel by air is their single largest carbon expense. They believe that in 2022 / 3 their business travel by air will be less than 25% of 2019 level.
There was article in the travel section of the Sunday Times in February 2020 entitled ‘Teenagers demand parents remain grounded’. This reported that young people are worried by David Attenborough’s documentaries and are urging their parents to avoid air travel when planning holidays. This article was a month before Covid hit the headlines.