The following research from the Burnet Institute is pretty sobering reading.
https://burnet.edu.au/news/1450_thou...odelling_shows
We found that if the virus enters the community when 60 per cent vaccine coverage has been reached and is left unchecked, we could see 4,885 deaths in Victoria within a year if no public health responses are introduced,” Dr Scott said.
Even with vaccine coverage at a highly unlikely 95%, in Victoria
the number of deaths reduces to 1346.
There are, of course, certain underlying assumptions to the modelling regarding efficacy and variant transmissibility, which seem quite reasonable.
In other words, without continued restrictions, based on people's stated willingness to vaccinate, we're looking at 5000 deaths a year in Victoria alone. Such an outcome would clearly be unacceptable in the current climate. Australia has boxed itself in to a corner. In the US which had 4000 deaths a day, the current state of play of 400ish a day is seen as a triumph. In Australia, 10 a day would be seen as disastrous. I can't see a way out of this, frankly, that would be acceptable to our politicians and the broader public, the bulk of whom don't seem to care if we shut the nation off for ever.