The thing about this pandemic and the responses to it, is that forecasting/prediction over the next few weeks, let alone months, has become very unreliable. There are many scenarios ranging from pretty bad to quite good and they all seem about equally likely from where I’m sitting.
On the whole though, I’m more optimistic than I was last year, now that vaccination programs are taking off. Just looking at the airline industry from a hyper-selfish viewpoint, if you can afford airline travel, you can afford to be vaccinated and tested, so we should see things opening up in the short to medium term.
Again, from an industry-centric viewpoint, the elephant in the room is climate change and de-carbonisation of the global economy. That is likely to have a far greater impact on the medium to long term than CV-19 and its ilk...