I see today that British Airways are putting thousands of staff back on furlough. This is a disaster for them and their families and desperately sad for the industry as a whole. However, it was also entirely predictable and I despair at the head-in-the-sand views of so many in the aviation (and wider) industry.
Steven Hawking, Carl Sagan and Philip K. Dick all wrote extensively about the inevitability of a pandemic, and how it would manifest in our population. Steven Hawking was particularly matter-of-fact about the subject as he was so convinced it was simply a matter of when, and not if. He also said it would fundamentally change our world paradigm - everything would change seismically, and for the long term. The pandemic now is almost a 'cut 'n paste' of his views.
Forecasts of recovery of the aviation sector from within the sector are deluded. The virus is running the show, not the FAA, CAA, EASA or BA/Virgin/American/Lufthansa etc etc. There is a new reality now, and it is not going away. This virus now has a food source. It will mutate, hide, run, dodge and then fight - it is defining our new reality. There are many people in aviation who are waiting for it to 'go away'. I feel for them and desperately want them to be able to rebuild their industrys...but I fear they are living in a dreamworld. There is a new reality, and we must admit it, accept it, and adapt to it, not the other way round. For example, we probably need airliners with sealed passenger cells, individually filtered air, individual toilets etc. I am sure people think I am crazy and deluded - not a problem, as all opinions are equally valued - you may be right and I actually hope you are...seriously.
This is the new reality. Air travel will remain a fraction of what it was, and for many years. Those furloughed or let go completely will be lucky to come back, and if they do, they should be ready to be let go again at any time.
I know this is an unpopular view and not what people want to hear, but I believe it is where we now are.
I am ready for abuse and insults over my view, but I really am trying to be realistic. I have been in aviation for 30 yrs plus, I have degrees in Psychology and Engineering. I read everything I can get my hands on. I am not stupid.
The world has changed. By definition that means the previous state has gone. It is not coming back.