The lack of recall for unpaid leave people is a real concern. To me, that says they won't be trying to capture/compete on market share, they are just trying to survive. There is no possible way to get everyone back flying by next Summer. Not forgetting that natural attrition rates of ~120/year continue.
The fact they still haven't put out this expression of interest form for leavers, shows it's very far from happening, if ever. Perhaps they will just switch to the unabated flow of zero-hour kids coming from the academy to fulfil future needs.
EK has always suffered from lack of investment in the right places. Not recalling crew early enough will be their most costly; forever losing experience and capacity. The long-term effects could be catastrophic.
Without re-joiners, ME3 will have a tough time ever getting grounded assets back in the air. And the longer they wait, the less will be willing or capable to return to the ME. After kicking people out their home, selling/shipping their possessions, and forcing them to re-establish themselves in a new country, with new schools, new job, new friends, back with the wider Family - good luck convincing the aggrieved Wife to go back.
There are very few decision makers in EK, and none of them are in Flight Ops. They truly think they will snap their fingers and 1000 crew will rush back and be on line with a couple months notice. And for lower salary too
