Its not about COVID
COVID has been a gift for CX. All airlines are crippled and they can force POS18 on to the pilots. POS18 is a LCC style of contract (not really a contract as everything is company policy).
The base closures gives them POS18 forced on to the based pilots and allows them to terminate all those who chose not to return to HKG or "can not" because they can't get work visas - another win for the company.
As the full effect of POS18 (no housing) comes into effect many will sell up and leave, the shedding of the based pilots will cut numbers further.
Business travel will return - no one spends serious money without face to face time with the other party. The great unwashed down in EY will also return.
It won't be long before those who are left are working flat out, all on POS18. This is why the investors were so keen to pick up the bond offering. CX wins again.