I think the scenario may play out similar to Brexit in that, as and when both sides agree to another vote, the actual ‘make a decision’ element could be resolved in a matter of months. It is after all, just like another polling day. The actual details would then take several years to resolve, especially for defence, which I honestly do not believe would receive much coverage in the debates prior to the vote, other than Scotland would be entitled to whatever percentage (8%?) of our current Armed Forces structure. Clearly, that 8% would need to be balanced, I.e, they would not have one Poseidon, one Shadow etc..
Talking Denmark and Norway examples is probably reasonable to match ambition against in terms of economy but for defence, it would probably be similar to Slovakia, a country of similar size. One Typhoon Sqn to declare to NATO plus a Sqn of SH to support the single Army brigade and maybe 3 Hercs. Offsets against the RAF using Lossie could be mitigated by the RAF providing all of the training for the Scottish Air Force and possibly AAR for Typhoon if supporting NATO QRA. This would remove the need for training aircraft altogether. Footprint wise, I would go for Lossie with ‘the’ Typhoon Sqn plus a permanent RAF det of Poseidon and Wedgetail. I’d stick the SRAF HQ in there as well. The trucks and helo’s would go to Leuchars alongside the leading Army battalion. Joint HQ in Edinburgh and that’s about it.
The other huge questions to be raised would be over pay, terms and conditions, let alone, could Scotland afford any of the above? Which probably might drive the solution closer to the Irish model or even the Costa Rica solution once economic reality had set in.