CCA
Let’s look at the numbers, bear with me here...
At the moment, CX has about 3100 pilots including almost 600 on bases. From its peak of around 3400, since October last year CX has lost about 300 pilots. If we assume full base closures, and say only 200 of those based pilot return to HK, that leaves 2700 pilots, less natural attrition of a further 200 between now and end of the year leaves 2500 total CX pilots at end of 2021 (excluding VSS and any possible further redundancies).
Now this is all very hypothetical, however if we assume a full return of worldwide and HK air travel in 5 years from now to early 2019 levels (pre protest), Cathay will need its 3400 pilots back, plus the void from KA, a further 500 pilots totaling 3900 crew by mid 2026. If we take natural attrition over the next 5 years at say 150 pilots a year, that is a further 750 pilots Cathay will lose by mid 2026. Plainly, if Cathay doesn’t retain or recruit many pilot until that time, they will only have around 1750 pilots available which means they need to recruit around 2150 new pilots up to mid 2026. Remember, at best Cathay has only previously ever been able to recruit about 200 pilots a year including local cadets.
When global travel fully returns to normal, and it will, there will be a huge shortage of pilots as those that have left will not have been readily and naturally replaced from the bottom as flight schools and natural pilot progression are currently stagnant and will be for some time. This will lead to airlines falling over one another fighting to recruit quality pilots and how many will want to come to CX on COS18 or worse when they can have their pick. I’d assume quite a few still in CX at that time will be applying elsewhere also.
So to conclude, if I was Cathay, one way or another I would be trying to hold on to as many crew as I can. However, we all know how shortsighted they are so hopefully there’s still someone left to turn off the lights by then.