Originally Posted by
tartare
Yeah - I dunno if I buy all this `China's military is to be feared.'
Compare the two countries - the image above looks scary right?
Except that each of those aircraft is nowhere near as capable as their respective US equivalent, and there aren't as many of them.
China will not match the US for quite a while technology-wise, in terms of power projection, amphibious ability, submarine capability.
And nukes - China has around 260 warheads according to FAS and Stratcom - it seems around a dozen of those are MIRV'ed.
The US has nearly 1400 single warhead weapons on active deployment.
Much as the popular narrative might say the US is in decline, even now, it is not a super power - it is a hyper power and it's the only one.
In an air sea battle off Taiwan - I believe the US would decimate the Chinese.
Chinese satellites would be blinded, their sole carrier or two sunk, their fighters and bombers picked off in a turkey shoot.
There would be US losses of course - a DF-21 or two might take out a US carrier and some larger ships.
But China's conventional military forces would be wrecked.
In response I believe the Chinese might be able to launch limited nuclear strikes - hit a few cities in the region, possibly on the CONUS.
But the US would then wipe them from the face of the map.
An utterly devastated China - with countless tens of millions dead, refugees, horrified expatriate Chinese watching in other countries - doesn't bear thinking about.
In my view, their posturing is really rather pathetic when you think critically about it.
Again, the US does not have 200 plus worthwhile targets, rather a handful of big cities. Deterrence recognizes that losing them is intolerable.
Having a thousand plus warheads to make the rubble bounce repeatedly does not change that.
But at the rate China is expanding its industrial edge vis a vis the US, they will be sufficiently preeminent in their back yard by the end of this decade to prevail even against the US there.