Originally Posted by
Asturias56
Back on topic I'm never sure quite how much good all the spying actually does
Lots of cases where something vital was missed and even more when something may have been spotted but ignored
It is a game played by both sides. Website Secret Bases got abused decade ago for daring to highlight all the UK bases that were not on OS Maps, UK's head military guy was asked "Is this not treasonous behaviour", he just laughed and said "I fully expect that overseas powers know pretty much every base we have, it has only been secret from those who pay for it".
In many cases looking at online tender documents, Govt publications of jobs, mentioned in military promotions, new power lines going to places with zero population etc get focus. Bit like more cars visiting hospitals in Wuhan last year was seen as a sign that a sharp uptake in people attending hospital during covid. No different from a pub in a military town where all of a sudden the Friday night regulars don't appear, once maybe coincidence but same happening in other places and lots of delivery trucks appearing.
It is like "Seagulls following the trawler, expecting sardines to be thrown", the value in any piece of information is being able to tie it into a jigsaw and occasions it is coincidence, like 2 Russian army units doing mega exercises, while RuAF are carrying extensive preparations on a base 2000 miles away and 2 boomers have put to sea. Yup a sign but Army could be new commanders replacing poor ones, RuAF expecting new Air Force head to visit and the 2 boomers are because one is 2 weeks overdue leaving. But Kremlin bosses still heading to their Dachas and Embassys are quiet.
A "spy" being able to know that 2 army commanders dismissed for indiscipline and it has taken 6 months for replacements hence bring units up to expectations is what is valuable or the new AF boss making a known visit to a base.
Tony Geraghty in Brixmis book highlighted how NATO bosses would be fretting over an attack while his guys would see no evidence as the cogs were away or equipment was not moving.