My prediction based on previous years*: pent-up demand has 2019 traffic demand by 2022, but with redundancies, retirements and resentment the controller workforce will a fraction of 2019 levels. The CAA will blame NATS for the UKs inability to handle the traffic demand and fine them enough that they need to get rid of further controllers while frantically recruiting cheaper trainees to replace them. About a year after massive recruitment they will realise there aren’t enough seats for all the trainees and they’ll have to put half in the holding pool and lay-off some more and years will pass with the system creaking at the edges, all the while the CAA mandating lower costs and higher service levels with impossible timescales (when recruitment to validation takes about 3 years and validation is not the same as the experienced OJTIs, managers and assessors who have left).
*past performance is no guarantee of future results
CAP2100 Project Palamon