PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Skill Decline in pilots pre Covid
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Old 26th Mar 2021, 17:34
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safetypee
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
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rg, ‘Perhaps you are saying that we cannot second-guess the next scenario which will lead to hundreds of deaths?’
Yes; but I would like to consider the views which consider otherwise.

If we view the human as a hazard, requiring training, awareness, and acting appropriately in every situation, then the industry will grind slowly to a halt. We might train for the unexpected, but no training can assure appropriate outcome - mismatched awareness or understanding.* (this applies to all humans in aviation, whatever level, who trains the trainers, regulators, …)
Viewing the human as an asset by identifying behaviours which result in safe outcomes, then there could be small improvements. However, this requires understanding that behaviour and matching it appropriately to situations.

In AF 447 the human is often viewed as a hazard. But what of the previous 15 or so ice crystal air-data malfunctions with successful outcomes - we should view the human as an asset, but without investigation nothing is learnt. In hindsight, these crews made good decisions, but we don't know why or how, so what can be trained.

The circular argument is our inability to understand human behaviour, for which there is no single solution (even if we think we understand the problem).
Human behaviour is complex, thus any ‘system’ involving humans must be treated as complex, requiring alternative viewpoints, thinking, and ‘gentle tending by the gardeners’.
If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible. He will therefore have to use what knowledge he can achieve, not to shape the results as the craftsman shapes his handiwork, but rather to cultivate a growth by providing the appropriate environment, in the manner in which the gardener does this for his plants.” Von Hayek
http://www.demos.co.uk/files/Connect...ts_-_web-2.pdf
Sections 1 (wicked issues) and 5, gardening

*http://www.pacdeff.com/pdfs/Errors%2...n%20Making.pdf
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