commit aviation: I would agree that the LCC contingent does (currently) offer the prospect of bringing back short-haul volume at a brisk pace. And there is certainly a ready market for their offerings if that is allowed to happen.
But government interference will be key - both here in the UK and in other jurisdictions. Unpredictability and quarantine requirements are a killer for holiday bookings. The requirement for expensive C-19 testing is a killer for the budget short-breaks market (not to mention the hassle factor of arranging a test -H72 before).
There is a serious risk emerging that the SH leisure sector faces another summer season wipeout. We had presumed that a successful vaccination rollout would bring liberation, but instead the trend appears to be towards more draconian restrictions than those in force last Summer when nobody had any protection against the virus at all. This defies logic, but it is what it is. The likes of Professor Adulterer seems to want us locked down forever (with just him being allowed out to indulge his passions). Meanwhile, our real PM Princess Nut Nuts and her willing chancellor (Caroline Lucas in drag) Sunak are waging a campaign of annihilation against aviation in the UK. Assistance for airlines and airports has been negligible beyond those measures offered to businesses generally, despite HMG being 100% responsible for their extinction-level plight. Even in instances where
PR-friendly assistance is proposed at the margins - eg. a cut to domestic APD, we quickly learn of proposals to pay for this by hitting long-haul rates even harder instead.
In order for these LCC's to do what they're capable of doing post-pandemic, we first need them to survive. If they lose a second successive summer season, that can not be presumed even for the strongest names. No airline is safe if revenue is crushed for two consecutive years. If even "unthinkable" names fall by the wayside, the return of passenger volumes post-pandemic could be very laboured indeed. Limited by lack of supply. And our dear leaders will preen and boast of how "green" they are, lauding the carbon targets they will now meet. One day, someone will explain to these eejits about the role of WATER VAPOUR in shaping climate. But we'd better not hope for any apology from them.