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Old 23rd Mar 2021, 09:30
  #66 (permalink)  
SierraTangoBravo
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Location: Ukraine
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Let me give you some point regarding pilotless aircraft.

Let's go to arithmetic and Airbus/Boeing production.

Usually aircraft model is been produced for 20-30 years. A320 from 1990 till today, 737NG from 1998 till 2019,A330 From 1994 till today.

Average airframe lifetime:

Narrowbody (320/737) - 20 years as passenger and, 10-15 more years as a freighter (if converted, like 737-400 or 737-800)

Widebody (330/747/767/777) 20-30 years as passenger aircraft and 10-25 more years as freighter (if converted, like 767, 777)

Today the following narrowbody and widebody airplanes are still in production:

a320 (including NEO) - plenty of orders. Will be produced up to mid 2030-s I assume

737MAX - till the end of 2020-s it will be in production

a330-900 and a350 - pretty popular - will be produced for along time up to 2040 I believe

777-X - passenger and freighter versions will be in production for a long time (let it be 2040)

787 - popular and reliable - still enough orders - assume production untill mid 2030-s

767F - will be produced at least untill 2025-2027.

Also we should notice E190E2 and C300/A220, as well - these new models will be in production for next 10 years, at least (I assume until 2040 also)

Boeing is about to launch it's NMA program, but this is still on early stage. Let's assume it also will be 2-pilot aircraft - this roughly give us 2030 as production start and 2050-2060 as production finish for that model.(Absolutely theoretical, but let me to speculate).

Let summarize this info.

We have classic 2-pilot scheme as a "gold standard" for Airbus and Boeing (as well as Embraer). Tons of these manned aircraft are produced right now and will be produced for the next 20 years at least. Even if production of these aircraft will be ceased, they will fly up to mid 2060 (this is the worse case).

If you are 15-30 person, who are about to become a pilot, the risk to be replaced by unmanned passenger aircraft is insignificant.
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