I would say you are wrong. I mean this would be the case in ideal world. Unfortunatelly, majority of people thinks this way: everyone is doing ATPL now - I should do it to... So masivelly training will start when airlines will start to hire again. Those who will start training now, will be finishing by that time and be "job ready", those who will start in that moment will in big numbers finish training just before another crisis.
Its the same in economy, if the taxi driver tells you he is buing stocks cause its awesome way of making money its a good time to sell yours.