Can we discuss some specific potential airline-aircraft-route triple combinations that might be enabled by a runway extension at SOU to 1900m without resorting to metaphorically vaguely waving hands around ? Hopefully, we can come to some sort of idea about what benefits the extension might really have to the air connectivity of the region and how worthwhile an extension would be
Safety:
wombat - I agree there is a safety case, but I suspect that the shareholders (despite public protestations otherwise) will not agree to spending the money without a very good chance of increased revenue. Thus, new routes becomes critical to an extension taking place.
Network Airlines
SOU has historically functioned reliably as a regional airport, connecting people to major cities.
I thought maybe Air Nostrum to Madrid but this cannibalises LHR - will IAG want this ?
I'd like to think that LH might take a look at FRA - but wondered why an extension is necessary when LH already serve LCY. Eurowings to DUS with a 319/320 seems like too many seats to fill. I did wonder about LX with an A220 - but they'd probably look at Bristol beforehand
I also thought of Hop, but again if they don't even do Bristol, is SOU really going to attract them any time soon ?
Finally - would an Aer Lingus ATR really need the runway extension ?
LCCs
I'm afraid I just don't see Easyjet wanting to significantly dilute Gatwick or Bristol. They might add EDI, GLA, JER, BFS, AMS, CDG as a non-based or W operation but is the runway extension really necessary for 1 hour hops in an A319 ? If it was not for Covid, I think Loganair might have had a bit more competition 12 months ago
I see Wizz wanting to focus on their turning LGW into a 2nd London base - SOU is unlikely to be of interest
Volotea also came to mind, but it all seems a bit of a leap of faith
The only thing I could see is maybe Ryanair (more so than TUI) wanting to move their BOH routes to SOU. I'm wondering if SOU's terminal is capable of two 738s departing around the same time. To my untrained eyes, SOU's terminal seemed to be designed for lots of departures of smaller seat aircraft throughout the day, rather than fewer departures of 150+ seat aircraft. Additionally, is SOU sufficiently obstacle free (not the same as SEN) and would 1900m be enough for a Ryanair 738 even in bad weather ?
Summary
Extending will definitely help, but is 1900m enough to make a serious difference bearing in mind the fleet of various airlines and the routes people likely want to fly, compared to what is fly-able without an extension ?
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 18th Mar 2021 at 00:55.