The Royal Navy will have a regular presence in the Arctic Circle to counter the Russian strategic advantage over trade routes that will open as the ice caps melt, sources have revealed.
A frigate will join a multinational task force in the Barents Sea in the coming months amid concerns that
climate change could see Moscow establish control over polar regions.
Climate change will be identified as a “major security threat” in a long-awaited review of defence, security and foreign policy to be published next Tuesday. The document,
Global Britain in a Competitive Age, will make clear the “threat it poses to stability across the world”, Whitehall sources said.
Dominic Raab, the foreign secretary, is visiting Estonia and Norway for talks on the threat posed by
Russia and climate change in advance of
the COP26 climate conference in November.
Before he departed, he said: “The UK is committed to standing with our close friends in the Nordic and Baltic regions, both militarily as well as in tackling Russia’s disinformation and destabilising regional activity. In the face of challenges such as climate change and protecting the polar regions, the need for like-minded nations to come together has never been more important.”
Officials believe the effect of global warming on food security, water supply and, in turn, migration and extremism in areas such as the Sahel region of western Africa could have wide-ranging security implications for Britain.
There are also concerns that Russia and
China could exploit new shipping lanes that are emerging in the Arctic Circle as
the ice caps melt.
A Navy source said: “The world’s prosperity depends on trade. If trade routes open up we have to make sure they remain open and are not dominated by one or two countries.”
In September last year, two RAF Typhoons and the Type 23 frigate HMS Sutherland were sent to the Arctic Circle to assert freedom of navigation rights. It was the first time the Navy had led a multinational task group in the region in more than 20 years. British forces came as close as 50 nautical miles from the Russian coast. The Kremlin’s Northern Fleet is based in nearby Severomorsk and its Baltic Fleet is based at Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave between Poland and Lithuania.
The shipping routes opened up by the ice melting have the potential to cut travel time from China to Europe by almost half, making them very lucrative. Sources who have seen the “chunky” review, which was led by Downing Street’s foreign policy chief, John Bew, 40, said that it featured numerous references to climate change. It is billed as the most radical re-evaluation of defence, security and foreign policy since the end of the Cold War.
Lieutenant General Richard Nugee, who is leading the Ministry of Defence’s climate change policy, has been one of the officials working on the document. He has also been tasked with carrying out a review into the MoD’s immediate response to what a defence source described as “one of the most significant challenges facing both the UK and defence”.
Climate threats to security
• Higher temperatures in areas such as western Africa’s Sahel region are contributing to droughts, increasing conflicts over resources and fuelling the rise of extremist groups such as Boko Haram and al-Qaeda. Military chiefs fear these conflicts could spill over into neighbouring countries and exacerbate the migrant crisis.
• In the Arctic Circle, melting ice is opening up new shipping routes in Russia’s backyard. These lucrative new routes, which could cut transit times from China to Europe by almost half, may become contested.