Originally Posted by
ORAC
If, as reported by The Times, no F-35s will be purchased beyond the 48 already on order, and the planned delivery schedule, what would be a possible plan for a future air wing?
Extended cooperation with the USMC and a permanent squadron on board alongside one RAF/RN squadron?
One RAF/Wing 24 aircraft wing rotating between the QE2/POW with the other just used as a CVH and a trickle buy of attrition spares?
Fitting drone capable EMALS and having an air wing of one F-35B Sqn with drone UCAV wingmen?
Rotating one full wing between the two until a refit with EMALS and a naval Tempest?
As above but hanging on for the rumoured USN F-XX?
I imagine there will be a lot of pages written if the capping at 48 aircraft is confirmed.
I suspect giving the pre-IR speculation by an echo-chamber of defence journos a stiff ignoring might be the best view. The latest "official" view on the F35 buy was back in December at the HCDC by FinMilCap himself.
https://committees.parliament.uk/oralevidence/1350/pdf/
Q52 Sarah Atherton: Gentlemen, can I speak about the air combat strategy and in particular the F-35? Originally, the MOD stated its intention to buy 138 Lightning aircraft to support four operational squadrons and both carriers. That is now being degraded down to 48 jets to be delivered by 2026. So, with this increase in defence spending, will we see a commitment to purchase more aircraft?
Air Marshal Knighton: The 48 aircraft that you describe are those that we have ordered, that we have funding set aside for; as you say, the final ones are due to be delivered over the next five or six years. We know from our analysis that in order to sustain the F-35 capability and the carrier capability, we do need to increase the number of F-35s that we buy, and that we will want to do that over the period beyond 2025, when the next batch are brought into service. The precise number and the shape of that profile is, to some extent, dependent on our analysis around the overall future combat air system.
While we know we need to increase the number of F-35Bs to support the carrier right the way through to its out-of-service date, the precise number will depend a bit on the work we do and the investment we’re making in the future combat air system, which the Prime Minister talked about. So we expect to be able to make definitive judgments around total future fleet in the 2025 timeframe; it could be up to the 138 or it could be less than that, but we need to do that analysis and that work to make sure that we get the right number.I can confirm that we know we will need to order more F-35Bs than we currently have on order.