This weeks Economist has an article on future plans"..... In 2018 a commission tasked with scrutinising American defence strategy warned that in a war with China, “Americans could face a decisive military defeat.” On March 4th Admiral Philip Davidson, head of America’s Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), said that China would achieve “overmatch” within five years.
That prospect has roused Congress. In December it authorised a $2.2bn fund, the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), to shore up INDOPACOM. ..... The heart of America’s military predicament in Asia is that it would rely on a handful of large bases, notably in Japan and South Korea, well within range of China’s huge arsenal of conventional missiles . American commanders want to use the PDI to harden their defences, spread out forces more widely and develop new ways of putting China on the back foot.
The centrepiece of these efforts is Guam, that INDOPACOM describes as “our most crucial operating location in the western Pacific”. The island is close enough to China to use as a springboard for bombers and other weapons, yet distant enough—almost 5,000km from the Chinese mainland—to be out of range of China’s most numerous missiles. A new Marine Corps base on Guam that opened in October is the corps’ first in Asia since 1952. Guam remains acutely vulnerable to low-flying cruise missiles that China could fire from ships, subs and bombers. INCOPACOM therefore wants to spend almost $4.4bn over six years to upgrade the island’s air and missile defences,
But if American bases in Japan and South Korea are peppered with missiles, Guam may not suffice.T... intend to spend $9bn over six years building and upgrading runways, fuel stores and arms depots, among other infrastructure, all across the region. Potential sites include American territories, such as Tinian; islands in countries with military compacts with America, such as Yap in the Federated States of Micronesia, and other, as-yet-unspecified countries in East Asia and the Pacific.
The point of this dispersal is not simply wait for an onslaught, but also to give China a taste of its own medicine. Trump’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 means that America is free to build conventional land-based missiles with a range of over 500km. The PDI sets aside $3.3bn over six years for such missiles, which would be aimed at China’s navy. The catch is that not many countries are enthused by the prospect of hosting American missiles in peacetime or becoming a refuge for American troops in the middle of a shooting war.
In the meantime, INDOPACOM wants to lubricate relations with cash. More than $2.6bn is earmarked for training and equipping friends in the region over six years. That is sorely needed: last year China’s defence budget grew by $12bn, more than every other Asian country combined, according to IISS. For now, this remains a wish list. America’s defence spending is not expected to grow this year and the PDI must be carved out of the main budget. Admiral Davidson points out that his request is “less than seven-tenths of 1%” of defence spending. W hat is pocket change for the Pentagon would make a splash in the Pacific."