From the radar plotting it is unclear what the pilot did below 400', but if the last direction of travel was maintained that would make things worst for contact with the water. The strong headwind would had become a strong tailwind, increasing the ground speed at the point of contact with the water, which certainly doesn't help, and would make the event less survivable.
If faced with unexpected weather, and being pushed for fuel, one has to ready to abandon the original plan, and adapt to the situation. Had he tryed to go to Orcas Island, assuming the weather there was acceptable at the time, he would probably still be alive.