I would argue that EU261 disrupts what should be the normal yield management process. An airline will have a good idea of noshows... but the possibility of a claim makes airlines err on the side of caution and thus restrain overbooking so as to expect a few seats spare when leaving the gate
A non-EU261 standby pax would have to pay at the time of booking, NOT the day of travel.... the decision optionality accrues to the airline, not passenger. This means an airline could sell perhaps 10 more seats on a B738 (dependent on route) to standby pax - so push load factor from a pre-Covid *system-wide average* of 96% to 99%. Two months before departure, there is a significant level of uncertainty about ticket sales.... at T-24h it should be much easier to predict how many last minute ticket sales (including weather or strike related disruption) versus potential standby-to-confirmed conversion seats.
Additionally, standby tickets could be released gradually (max 2 pax per day) during the 9 months prior to departure - makes it less accessible for large groups who can't be split up, prohibit sales to under-18s and would reduce tariff abuse. Thus it should be very much a "top up" part of the ticket sales process
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 20th Feb 2021 at 13:51.